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Research note · AI & power · 16 Oct 2026

America’s biggest power grid couldn’t line up all the power it wanted for 2028.

AI runs on electricity. US data centers could use up to about 4 times more power by 2030, and the biggest grid already came up short in its auction for 2028–29. Here is what that means, in plain English, with every source.

Illustration: power line towers in fog with a large orange sun
Cover: illustration made for YosQuant.
192billion kWh used by US data centers in 2024
521–843billion kWh by 2030 (scenarios, not a forecast)
6,831 MWshort of the grid’s safety target for 2028–29

1. How much power data centers use

A US national lab estimates data centers used about 192 billion kilowatt-hours in 2024. For 2030 it gives a range of 521 to 843 billion, depending on how fast AI grows and how efficient the chips get. That is a range of scenarios, not a single forecast. [1]

2. The auction that hit its ceiling

PJM, the largest grid operator in the US, buys power capacity years in advance through an auction. For 2028–29 the price cleared at the maximum allowed ($325 per megawatt per day), and it still came up 6,831 megawatts short of its reliability requirement. PJM says this does not mean it will fail to serve demand. [2] [3]

3. Locking in power early

Microsoft, Meta, Amazon and Google have signed 20-year deals with nuclear plants (see our nuclear note). [4]

4. Rules still being written

The US energy regulator (FERC) has told grid operators to set clearer rules for very large new users such as data centers (December 2025 and June 2026). Texas ordered an audit of data center projects. [3] [5] [6]

5. The test

The 2030 number is a range, not a promise. A short auction is a warning light, not a blackout.

Sources

  1. LBNL, United States Data Center Energy Usage Report: 2025 Update, Jun 2026. energy.gov
  2. PJM Inside Lines, capacity auction results for 2028/29. insidelines.pjm.com
  3. FERC fact sheet, Dec 2025 (nation’s largest grid operator, large loads). ferc.gov
  4. YosQuant note: Big Tech’s 20-year nuclear deals. yosquant.com
  5. FERC, large-load integration action, Jun 2026. ferc.gov
  6. Office of the Texas Governor, data center audit. gov.texas.gov

Image credits

  1. Cover and carousel slide 1: illustration made for YosQuant.
  2. “High voltage power grid of the United States”, Wikideas1, CC0. Wikimedia Commons
  3. “The view out of a nuclear cooling tower (Unsplash)”, Jakob Madsen jmadsen, CC0. Wikimedia Commons
  4. “Transmission tower at dusk (Unsplash)”, Adi Ulici adiulici, CC0. Wikimedia Commons
  5. “United States at night”, NASA Earth Observatory/NOAA NGDC, Public domain. Wikimedia Commons