Research note · AI & memory · 16 Oct 2026
An old memory chip went up about 9× in 14 months.
Memory prices jumped as AI demand met tight supply. Here is how much, who pays, and why it could swing back, in plain English, with every source.
$4.89 → $46.32DDR4 8Gb spot price, Aug 2025 → 6 Oct 2026
−13.9%IDC forecast for 2026 smartphone shipments
2029–2030when new factories arrive
1. The jump
| Date | Chip | Spot price per chip |
|---|---|---|
| 20 Aug 2025 | DDR4 8Gb 3200 | $4.89 |
| 6 Oct 2026 | DDR4 8Gb 3200 | $46.32 |
| 15 Oct 2026 | DDR4 8Gb | $45.97 |
| 15 Oct 2026 | DDR5 16Gb | $60.43 |
| 15 Oct 2026 | DDR4 16Gb | $83.66 |
Spot prices are short-term market prices for one product, not the price of all memory. [1] [2] [3]
2. Who pays
IDC expects smartphone shipments to fall 13.9% in 2026, citing the memory crisis and the US–Iran war. [4]
3. Prices move in waves
In 2024 the contract price of a DDR4 8Gb chip fell from $2.10 (July) to $1.35 (November), about −36%. [5]
4. The test
New factories arrive around 2029–2030. One Korean business report sees oversupply by 2029, on the condition that AI investment slows and makers keep expanding. That is a scenario, not a forecast. [6]
Sources
- TrendForce spot price update, 20 Aug 2025. trendforce.com
- TrendForce spot price update, 7 Oct 2026. trendforce.com
- TrendForce DRAMeXchange price board (read 15 Oct 2026). trendforce.com
- IDC smartphone outlook, May 2026. idc.com
- TrendForce, conventional DRAM prices, Dec 2024. trendforce.com
- Maeil Business Newspaper, Jul 2026. mk.co.kr
Image credits
- Cover and carousel slide 1: illustration made for YosQuant.
- “Rear of rack at NERSC data center - closeup”, Derrick Coetzee from Berkeley, CA, USA, CC0. Wikimedia Commons
